Early intervention is critical in increasing student success in Computer Science (CS) courses, which have attracted a diverse student population. In-class exercises, which are often low-stake and quick assignments, are a popular method for active learning and formative assessment. This study explores the potential of using in-class coding exercises for early intervention in programming courses, particularly before midterm exams. We analyzed historical data from a CS1 course to evaluate whether in-class coding exercises can predict midterm exam performance. Our findings reveal that in-class coding exercises are effective predictors of midterm performance and can serve as valuable tools for early intervention. Specifically, exercise scores and time on task are sufficient indicators of student performance. Although in-class exercises are less powerful predictors than traditional metrics, they offer quicker actionable insights. Additionally, predicting students who are struggling is more feasible than forecasting those who will fail or achieve specific letter grades. This research underscores the potential for designing targeted intervention schemes to support students in CS1 and other programming courses, highlighting the importance of timely and data-driven support mechanisms.